the third quarter rebound in copper prices expected to stabilize.support is expected in 6600 u.s. dollars / ton -7000 u.s. dollars / ton; resistance at $ 8400 / ton -8700 u.s. dollars / ton.first of all, before the global copper market into a surplus situation in 2013, the decline in ore grade is a major supporting factor.global ore grade and average about 1.1% in the next few years may increase, but will still be far below the 1.5% level.long term, declining ore grade.such as africa and zambia mine new ore grade and only slightly higher than 0.5%.the grade decline will lead to cost uplift by a rigid support.second, the global economic downturn in copper prices and the cost of line deviation will be corrected.both the gap will be narrowed, but approximation cash cost of reproduction unless the 2008 economic crisis.otherwise will be relatively strong support of around 2.6-2.8 u.s. $ / lb.the second half of 2012, the copper market is gradually transformed into excess supply.supply high-speed growth process has been extended to 2018.therefore, until 2022, the world might have been manifested as excess supply.the wbms data, global copper supply grew 3.4% in the first quarter of this year.china is a major contributor to the increase in copper mine supply, and so far this year, china's copper mine production increased by up to 28%.imports of copper ore processing fees low, prompting the domestic smelting enterprises more domestic ore.the international copper study group data show that the refined copper market capacity shortfall of 81,000 tons in february 2012, seasonally adjusted production capacity gap to reach 10 million tons.refined copper market capacity gap to reach 110,000 tons in the first two months of 2012, seasonally adjusted production capacity gap of 193,000 tons; gap expanded.global copper production increased by 3.8% in the first two months of 2012.again, from the consumer side, according to icsg data, global copper consumption in the first two months of 2012 year-on-year growth of 6%, which china's consumption of strong growth (43%) 29% of the world's total consumption, but other parts of the total consumptiona decrease of 6.5%, copper consumption in the european union, japan and the united states were reduced by 12%, 9% and 3.6% respectively.none but the combination of the continuous decline in copper stocks to 132,400 tons in early june of view, the relationship between supply and demand in the domestic copper market at any time may become strained.lme stocks have fallen to less than 23 million tons.shanghai and london ratio steadily climbing the low ratio up from early may, so that early anti-sets disk begins to thicken profit.the inventory change might alone can not explain the problem, but since the end of april, imports of copper to port liters of water has continued to stabilize at $ 50 / ton line, outside the mine supply side, there is still a certain pressure.the short term, the supply is still tight, the processing fee has dropped to 20 u.s. dollars / ton, also give evidence of a low of 20 cents / lb.finally, while the standardpoor's affirmed the u.s. non-commissioned long-term sovereign credit rating to aa short-term sovereign credit rating of a-1 .the long-term rating outlook remains negative.george w. bush during the elections in november this year, because the united states is approaching, and into december, a series of tax cuts due the end of this year, government spending cuts will take effect gradually, if no radical measures, the united states is likely to face the end of this yearfiscal cliff.negative means that sp lowered the rating of the united states the possibility of at least one-third.in this context, the fed once again the implementation of the third round of quantitative easing and increase the likelihood.thereby pushing up commodity.site for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.investors operate your own risk.
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